Laura Sarlo, Senior Sovereign Analyst


Laura Sarlo is a vice president and senior sovereign analyst at Loomis, Sayles & Company. Her sovereign work concentrates on fixed income and currencies across western Europe, and she is responsible for providing global ideas and recommendations to portfolio managers across the Loomis Sayles fixed income group. Additionally, she is the developed markets coordinator, responsible for looking across markets and weaving together the work being done by the sovereign analysts into an overall coordinated strategy. Prior to joining Loomis Sayles in 2005, Laura was a fixed income analyst at State Street Research & Management. She began her investment industry career as a trader and analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where she specialized in global fixed income and currency markets, and advised the Treasury on debt management policy. Laura earned a BA from Drew University and an MPP from Harvard University.

Recent Posts

Dutch Election Results: What Do They Mean for France?

Posted by Laura Sarlo, Senior Sovereign Analyst on Mar 21, 2017 1:11:32 PM

Global markets breathed a collective sigh of relief last week when it became clear that Geert Wilders’ anti-European Party for Freedom (PVV) did not win the most votes in the March 15 Dutch election.

But did populism lose? Is the populist wave over? Not so fast. Prime Minister Mark Rutte adopted some populist and nationalist rhetoric during the campaign –remember that he ran ads this past January in all major Dutch papers telling immigrants to “act normal or leave.”

 

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Topics: Macro Strategies, Sovereign Research

The Donald and the Dollar

Posted by Laura Sarlo, Senior Sovereign Analyst on Mar 8, 2017 9:45:00 AM

Posted byLaura Sarlo, Senior Sovereign Analyst and Tom Fahey, Senior Global Macro Strategist

From Election Day in November through the end of 2016, financial markets embraced the “Trump Trade,” pricing higher equities, higher interest rates and a stronger US dollar.

 So far this year, two legs of the Trump Trade remain intact:

  • US equities have continued to march higher as optimism grows for improving corporate profitability.
  • Bond yields have retraced some of the post-November gains, but at 2.49% the current US 10-year Treasury yield is still more than 60 basis points higher than the 1.8% seen just before the election.

However, the trade weighted dollar has dropped 4%, losing 5-7% against many emerging market and commodity-related currencies. We view the recent depreciation as a correction in the dollar’s primary trend toward appreciation. The dollar is likely to remain supported by easier fiscal policy, tighter monetary policy and the ongoing economic expansion. Most notably, we expect tax policy decisions published over the next month will be the major catalyst for the dollar for 2017.

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Topics: Macro Strategies

Italy Rejects Constitutional Reform Referendum

Posted by Laura Sarlo, Senior Sovereign Analyst on Dec 6, 2016 3:46:43 PM

Italy rejected Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's constitutional reform in Sunday’s referendum, as polls had predicted. But Italian voters didn’t just say “no,” they said “hell no!” with 59.1% voting against and 40.9% voting in favor. The magnitude of the rejection surprised financial markets, although the price impact has somewhat dissipated already.

We expect President Mattarella to select a leader for a caretaker government that will modify the current electoral law and then move to new elections sometime next year, ahead of the scheduled elections in 2018. The populist Five Star party (M5S) had fiercely opposed the electoral law, but is now pressing for immediate elections given that polls suggest M5S would win a strong mandate under fresh elections using the current electoral law.

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Topics: Sovereign Research

Britain's Vote for Brexit: Initial Thoughts

Posted by Laura Sarlo, Senior Sovereign Analyst on Jun 28, 2016 8:26:39 AM

Thus far, financial markets have not shown widespread panic over the historic outcome of last week's European Union (EU) referendum, just weakness and increased volatility. Here some initial thoughts on the economic and financial impact of this historic vote:

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Topics: Sovereign Research

Loomis Sayles analysts are career professionals who offer deep knowledge and experience in a diversity of global asset classes and market sectors. These dedicated experts provide the insight essential to supporting our portfolio management teams across a wide range of investment strategies.


 

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