By 
Global manufacturing appears to be roaring ahead. Global PMI[i] reached 56 in May, its highest level since 2010. What’s interesting is that emerging market (EM) and China PMIs have lagged developed markets (DM). China and Asia PMIs tend to lead DM PMIs during crisis periods, mostly due to China’s credit impulse and Asia’s prominent role in the global supply chain.
If EM PMIs are running lower than DM, does that suggest DM PMIs may run out of steam soon?
We don’t think so. DM PMIs may be at or near a peak, but we expect them to remain at elevated levels as the reopening process continues. It typically takes about 12 months or more for PMI prints to go from a peak to below 50 (indicating a contraction). Sometimes, it can take years. Meanwhile, EM PMIs are likely to catch up as vaccine distribution becomes more widespread, leading to more synchronous global growth.
For more on what growth dynamics may mean for the credit cycle, visit the Macro Strategies landing page.
WRITTEN BY:
[i] Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. It is often used to gauge the overall health of an economy. PMI levels above 50 indicate expansion.
MALR27357
Market conditions are extremely fluid and change frequently.
This blog post is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Any opinions or forecasts contained herein reflect the
subjective judgments and assumptions of the authors only and do not necessarily reflect the views of Loomis, Sayles & Company, L.P. Information, including
that obtained from outside sources, is believed to be correct, but Loomis Sayles cannot guarantee its accuracy. This material cannot be copied, reproduced or
redistributed without authorization. This information is subject to change at any time without notice.
