FOMC September Decision: Setting Up a Hike

Posted by Brian Horrigan, Chief Economist on Sep 22, 2016 11:05:49 AM

To almost no one’s surprise, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) changed no policy rates and it kept its policy concerning its balance sheet unchanged this week. 

Not everyone was pleased.  There were three dissents, all by bank presidents who wanted a 25 basis point hike:  Esther George, Loretta Mester and Eric Rosengren.  Rosengren was a bit of surprise since he used to be thought of as “dovish.”  It was the largest number of dissents in two years.  The degree of dissent should push the FOMC to act soon.

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Topics: Macro Strategies

Oil Outlook for the Remainder of 2016

Posted by Saurabh Lele, Senior Commodities Analyst on Sep 14, 2016 10:00:00 AM

I believe oil prices will likely remain under pressure through the end of the year. There has been exceptional growth in demand for oil over the last 12 months, but inventories have refused to budge as supply remained elevated. US supply has been falling but until recently has been largely offset by higher OPEC production (i.e. Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran).

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Topics: Commodities

US Housing: Prices Driven Up By Limited Construction & Strong Demand

Posted by Dmitri Rabin, Global RMBS and Covered Bonds Strategist on Sep 7, 2016 9:00:00 AM

Single family construction presents a puzzle: with the economy in the seventh year of expansion, why has home construction remained near depression levels? 

Construction is not depressed due to lack of demand from consumers – it is being held back by supply-side constraints in land, labor and financing which have not recovered from the 2008 housing crisis. That demand remains robust can be gleaned from strong increases in house prices. But we dug deeper, looking at states with strongest population and economic growth and found that even there, supply remains depressed.

In an environment of constrained supply, we expect to see continued home price appreciation and slow but steady growth in construction. Here’s why:

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Topics: Securitized Research

The Connected Consumer: 3 Key Themes

Posted by Amit Kapoor, Senior Equity Analyst, Large Cap Core on Aug 24, 2016 10:00:00 AM

Whether watching television, shopping or driving in the car, today’s consumers want to control exactly when, where and how they receive content, information, goods and services. 

These three themes capitalize on this long-term, secular trend:

 1. High quality content creation and delivery 

Out of the 118 million households in the US, 98 million are pay-TV subscribers. Last year, the US pay-TV industry lost 500,000 of these subscribers (a 0.5% decline), setting off concerns about cord-cutting and the demise of the pay-TV system. Based on the secular trend of ‘go-anywhere’ content consumption and delivery, I believe the US media ecosystem is more likely to see an evolution rather than a revolution, benefiting companies with scale, content creation and delivery capabilities, as well as diversified business models. 

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Topics: Equity Research

Loomis Sayles analysts are career professionals who offer deep knowledge and experience in a diversity of global asset classes and market sectors. These dedicated experts provide the insight essential to supporting our portfolio management teams across a wide range of investment strategies.


 

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