Chart of the Week: US GDP and the Soybean Factor

Posted by Brian Horrigan, Chief Economist on Feb 22, 2017 7:34:32 AM

Seasonally adjusted, US real GDP rose a strong 3.5% in the third quarter of 2016, but then slowed to a lousy 1.9% in the fourth quarter. (All growth rates are at an annual rate). Are these figures representative of an underlying economic trend? Believe it or not, soybeans were actually an important factor in the swings in growth.

The US had a bumper crop of soybeans last year and exported a huge amount to China, recorded in third quarter exports.  Seasonally adjusted, total real exports of food surged 216% in that period, the largest quarterly gain since 1969.   The rise in good exports accounted for most of the rise in merchandise exports that quarter and the surge boosted third quarter real GDP.

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Topics: Macro Strategies

2017 Market Outlook: 15 Experts On What To Watch

Posted by Orla O'Brien, Media Specialist on Jan 3, 2017 8:30:00 AM

 Every six months, we share insights from Loomis Sayles portfolio managers and analysts; what are the current themes and risks shaping their investment decisions? Looking into 2017, geopolitical shifts, rising rates, regulatory changes and new proposed policies from President-elect Trump will all be key factors. 

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Topics: Quantitative Research and Risk Analysis, Credit Research, Macro Strategies, Sovereign Research, Equity Research, Bank Loans, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income

Finally, Fed Hikes Rates: Our Reaction to the Second Increase Since 2006

Posted by Orla O'Brien, Media Specialist on Dec 14, 2016 5:23:14 PM

What a difference an election makes

"It wasn’t much of a surprise that the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate increase today - its first hike in 12 months and the second hike since 2006. It seems that solid employment reports, gradual increases in inflation and the prospect of fiscal stimulus have made Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) members more hawkish. Chair Janet Yellen’s assessment of the economy was mildly more upbeat and it appears that the FOMC now foresees a slightly faster pace of tightening than they’ve previously indicated. This flip in attitude breaks the trend of recent years, in which the FOMC backed away from tightening meeting after meeting.  What a difference an election makes."

- Brian Horrigan, Chief Economist

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Topics: Macro Strategies, Fixed Income

A Trump White House: Potential Market Impacts of the US Election

Posted by Tom Fahey, Senior Global Macro Strategist on Nov 9, 2016 2:30:00 PM

Donald Trump's presidential upset has stunned financial markets, which had heavily discounted a Clinton victory. What might Trump's policy proposals mean for markets and key components of the US economy going forward? The questions outnumber the answers at this stage, but here are our best guesses.

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Topics: Macro Strategies

Loomis Sayles analysts are career professionals who offer deep knowledge and experience in a diversity of global asset classes and market sectors. These dedicated experts provide the insight essential to supporting our portfolio management teams across a wide range of investment strategies.


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