Emerging Markets Winners and Losers: Q4 2015

Posted by Jackie Lafferty, Investment Analyst on Mar 3, 2016 2:27:49 PM

In the fourth quarter, emerging market (EM) assets posted modest to flat gains. This left investors, many of whom were hopeful for a year-end rebound, disappointed. The recovery in EM was stalled by both macro and country-specific factors:

  • Selloff in US high-yield bonds dampened investor sentiment
  • Spreads widened, driven by a prolonged weakness in commodities and the Brazil sovereign downgrade
  • Idiosyncratic events in South Africa continued to fuel volatility in FX and bond markets

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Topics: Emerging Markets

2016 Market Outlook: 14 Experts On What To Watch

Posted by Orla O'Brien, Media Specialist on Nov 30, 2015 4:00:00 PM

What’s in store for global markets in 2016? We asked analysts, strategists and traders across Loomis Sayles to pinpoint trends and potential trouble spots for the markets next year.

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Topics: Credit Research, Macro Strategies, Sovereign Research, Equity Research, Bank Loans, Securitized Research, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income

Emerging Markets Winners and Losers: Q3 2015

Posted by Jackie Lafferty, Investment Analyst on Nov 8, 2015 9:00:00 PM

Investor risk aversion battered emerging market (EM) assets during the third quarter. Local currency and hard currency markets both posted negative gains and EM equities posted double digit losses.

The carnage in emerging markets during Q3 was largely driven by China, with prolonged depressed commodity prices and US dollar strength also contributing to declines. The August market meltdown was led by the Chinese stock market collapse, its precipitous fall triggered massive selling across global equity markets, spiking volatility and moving investors out of risk and EM. The delayed Fed rate hike, a reaction to market turmoil, kept investors defensively positioned with many calling into question the prospects for global growth.

The convergence of these difficult macroeconomic conditions accelerated EM capital outflows, which worsened on the heels of Brazil’s downgrade to junk by S&P and lead to a re-pricing of EM assets in the third quarter.

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Topics: Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets Winners and Losers: Q2 2015

Posted by Jackie Lafferty, Investment Analyst on Aug 11, 2015 11:00:00 AM

Following positive performance in the first quarter, emerging markets (EM) came under pressure from macroeconomic factors in the second quarter, resulting in mixed returns for the asset class:

  • The global yield environment dramatically shifted
  • Core rates rose sharply
  • Positive US growth data increased expectations of a September hike
  • The potential for a Greek exit from the EU and the correction in the Chinese equity market dampened global risk appetite and fueled market uncertainty

In the face of these negative headwinds, EM hard currency bonds outperformed global counterparts. During the second quarter, favorable technicals, some stabilization in commodity prices and attractive valuations left EM better positioned to weather the swift bond sell off in May, and the negative headlines in June. 

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Topics: Emerging Markets

Loomis Sayles analysts are career professionals who offer deep knowledge and experience in a diversity of global asset classes and market sectors. These dedicated experts provide the insight essential to supporting our portfolio management teams across a wide range of investment strategies.


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