US Housing: Prices Driven Up By Limited Construction & Strong Demand

Posted by Dmitri Rabin, Global RMBS and Covered Bonds Strategist on Sep 7, 2016 9:00:00 AM

Single family construction presents a puzzle: with the economy in the seventh year of expansion, why has home construction remained near depression levels? 

Construction is not depressed due to lack of demand from consumers – it is being held back by supply-side constraints in land, labor and financing which have not recovered from the 2008 housing crisis. That demand remains robust can be gleaned from strong increases in house prices. But we dug deeper, looking at states with strongest population and economic growth and found that even there, supply remains depressed.

In an environment of constrained supply, we expect to see continued home price appreciation and slow but steady growth in construction. Here’s why:

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Topics: Securitized Research

2016 Mid-Year Investment Outlook: 12 Experts on What to Watch

Posted by Orla O'Brien, Media Specialist on Jul 8, 2016 11:00:00 AM

We spoke with 12 Loomis Sayles investment experts about the most pressing issues and provocative investment themes for the remainder of 2016. What are they watching? Read on for their insights:

Brexit's impact on Central & Eastern Europe

“Brexit uncertainty is expected to hit EU confidence and growth – with spillover into Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). CEE is vulnerable from Brexit on several fronts:

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Topics: Credit Research, Macro Strategies, Sovereign Research, Equity Research, Bank Loans, Securitized Research, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income

Global House Prices: Hints of Housing Bubbles

Posted by Dmitri Rabin, Global RMBS and Covered Bonds Strategist on Mar 16, 2016 10:40:04 AM


Over the last 25 years, home prices across a number of major economies have risen faster than local income or inflation levels.  Real home prices across these nations are up an average of 25% compared to 1990. In addition, home price-to-rent ratios are also far higher than their long-term averages.[i]

While under-building and population growth can explain some of the home price appreciation, this is unlikely to be the only explanation because house prices have risen faster than rents or incomes.

We observe very low real mortgage rates and buying activity based on consumer expectations for additional price increases – both consistent with conditions that signaled housing bubbles in the past.

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Topics: Securitized Research

2016 Market Outlook: 14 Experts On What To Watch

Posted by Orla O'Brien, Media Specialist on Nov 30, 2015 4:00:00 PM

What’s in store for global markets in 2016? We asked analysts, strategists and traders across Loomis Sayles to pinpoint trends and potential trouble spots for the markets next year.

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Topics: Credit Research, Macro Strategies, Sovereign Research, Equity Research, Bank Loans, Securitized Research, Emerging Markets, Fixed Income

Loomis Sayles analysts are career professionals who offer deep knowledge and experience in a diversity of global asset classes and market sectors. These dedicated experts provide the insight essential to supporting our portfolio management teams across a wide range of investment strategies.


 

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